Insight

Impact of retaliatory tariffs on Australian and New Zealand exporters

insight featured image

As of April 9, 2025, a minimum universal tariff of 10 per cent has been applied to all imported goods into the United States. Certain countries face higher reciprocal tariffs based on their US trade deficit, which currently has a 90 day hold period as up to 70 countries have opened negotiations with the US Government.

The Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs remain at 25 per cent to align with these new measures. Additionally, a 125 per cent tariff on Chinese goods was imposed on top of existing tariffs, including Section 301 tariffs and Most Favored Nation (MFN) rates, aiming to encourage China to negotiate trade terms with the United States. The US Government claims this will protect U.S. industries and reduce the trade deficit. Automotive parts compliant with the USMCA are exempt from these tariffs, while certain automotive parts will attract a 25 per cent duty rate plus MFN.  

For Australian and New Zealand exporters, these tariffs bring challenges but also present an opportunity for innovation within the supply chain.  

Alongside the universal tariff, the MFN rate remains applicable. For example, there is an average duty rate of 5 per cent on agricultural goods exported into the US. The suspension of the ‘de minimis’ trade exemption means packages valued under USD$800 are no longer duty-free when shipped to the US, primarily impacting e-commerce retailers. Companies dependent on Chinese manufacturing will face increased costs as China seeks to offset the financial impact of US tariffs, potentially leading to higher consumer prices and supply chain disruptions. 

The broader impact on supply chains reliant on Chinese and other Asian manufacturing is significant. The US tariffs on Chinese imports will affect Australian exports of iron ore, coal, and copper, integral to Chinese manufacturing. This may result in ramifications for Australian commodity exports to China as US tariffs on Chinese imports indirectly impact Australian businesses. 

In a recent addition, the President has issued an Executive Order directing the Department of Commerce to initiate a Section 232 investigation on critical minerals and rare earth elements. This investigation is set to begin immediately with an initial internal report due within 90 days. Agencies are required to provide comments within 15 days, and a final report is expected by late January 2026.  

The President will then have 90 days to decide on the findings and whether to adjust imports, with a final decision due by April 25, 2026, and action required within 15 days, around May 10, 2026. This timeline extends over a year and could have significant implications for global trade dynamics, particularly for Australian and New Zealand exporters. The investigation could lead to new tariffs or trade restrictions on critical minerals, rare earth elements, and derivative products, potentially disrupting supply chains and increasing costs for exporters in these regions. Additionally, the focus on processed critical minerals and derivative products may impact industries reliant on these materials, such as micro-processors, electric vehicles, smart phones, batteries and manufacturing, further influencing trade patterns and economic stability in Australia and New Zealand. 

How we can help with customs and global trade 

Grant Thornton’s Global Trade and Transfer Pricing experts provide a full range of services to assist Australian and New Zealand clients in navigating the complexities of the tariffs introduced by the US Government as well as helping to identify potential opportunities that arise. We can help your business reduce the impact of increased costs and supply chain disruptions, while also identifying competitive opportunities and synergies for optimisation and compliance requirements.  

Grant Thornton offers guidance on global trade, customs services, and transfer pricing, helping clients develop procurement strategies considering the impact of changing supply chain flows from a duty perspective. These services include: 

Data Analysis 

  • Drawback analysis: Identifying and reclaiming duties paid on imported goods that are subsequently exported. 
  • Free Trade Agreement (FTA) analysis: Assessing the benefits of various FTAs to ensure clients leverage all available duty reductions. 
  • Tariff re-engineering: Optimising tariff classifications and exploring duty exemption schemes to minimise costs. 
  • Origin verification: Verifying the origin of goods to maximize the benefits of FTAs and other duty programs, ensuring compliance with rules of origin. 
  • General compliance: Ensuring general customs compliance, including the disclosure of transfer pricing adjustments. 

Procurement strategies 

  • Direct procurement: Developing multi-sourcing relationships, negotiating volume-based price protections, and exploring material substitutions to reduce dependence on tariffed inputs. 
  • Indirect procurement: Managing tariff-driven cost increases effectively across software, facilities management, logistics services, and other operational expenses. 

Transfer Pricing services 

  • Review of transfer pricing policies: Reviewing existing transfer pricing policies, how they affect the price of related party dealings and the impact they have on goods declared for customs duty purposes. 
  • Optimising supply chains: Reviewing global supply chains including activities performed by each related party, analysing sales transaction flows versus physical transaction flows, and aligning characterisation of group entities for transfer pricing purposes to help companies adapt their operations effectively. 
Learn more about how our Global trade and customs services can help you
Visit our Global trade and customs page
Learn more about how our Global trade and customs services can help you